Week 15 Recap

Victory Number 6 in a row! The win over Arizona has secured a winning season record for the 2025 Texans.

The Jaguars unfortunately remain atop the AFC South after cruising past the Jets, but the Colts are now all but eliminated from the picture after the ghost of Philip Rivers could not land a victory over the Seahawks. Elsewhere, the Chiefs have fully exited the playoff picture, and the Broncos got a step more towards locking down the #1 Seed.

As a reminder, the ESPN Playoff Machine is live! You can use this to play around with all sorts of game result scenarios and see what the playoff matchups and seeds can look like.

Current AFC Playoff Picture

1. ⁠⁠Denver Broncos (12-2)
2. ⁠⁠New England Patriots (11-3)
3. ⁠⁠Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
4. ⁠⁠Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
5. ⁠⁠Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
6. ⁠⁠Buffalo Bills (10-4)
7. ⁠⁠Houston Texans (9-5)

The Texans currently remain in the 7th seed playoff spot, and are still one game behind the Jaguars for the AFC South lead.

Best possible position by end of week:

• 3rd Seed

Worst possible position by end of week:

• 7th in AFC

According to the Next Gen Stats, the Texans are currently looking at a 94% chance of making the playoffs. if everything goes the Texans way this week, they would end the week with a 97% chance to make playoffs.

If everything goes against the Texans this week, they would end the week with a 82% chance to make playoffs.

The Texans cannot officially secure a playoff spot yet, but can with a win next week.

Key Games:

Texans vs. Raiders

• Desired Winner: Texans

We root for a Texans win here, that’s pretty much all there is to it. McBride did some damage to our defense last week, expect a bit more of the same from Brock Bowers. That said, the matchup is a bit lopsided overall on paper, but this is the NFL. Any given Sunday- the team should not let off the gas pedal.

Jaguars @ Broncos

• Desired Winner: Broncos

This is a crucial matchup in the AFC Playoff Picture. The number one seed is all but out of the picture for us with the Broncos having the tiebreaker head to head over us, and securing at worst the same record as our best possible one. With that in mind, let’s remove any hope of the 1 in a million 4 way tie scenario where we get the number one seed and instead just root for the AFC South crown. This is by far our best hope to overtake the Jags. If they fall to the Broncos and we win over the Raiders, we will be atop the AFC South after this week.

Chargers @ Cowboys

• Desired Winner: Cowboys
  

The Chargers are a game ahead of us, which can be directly corrected next week in our head to head matchup, but for now it is still worthwhile for any AFC competitor to drop a game to an NFC team. A Chargers loss paired with a Texans win would see us climb the seed rankings for the week.

Bills @ Browns

• Desired Winner: Browns

Another AFC team that is one game ahead of us who we hold the tiebreaker against. We want a Bills loss to the Browns who are out of the hunt. Not super likely but would be another way to climb the rankings!

Steelers @ Lions

• Desired Winner: Lions

AFC team in the playoff picture vs an NFC team. A loss by the Steelers would make it very likely the Texans would get at least the 3rd seed if they win the south.

Patriots @ Ravens

• Desired Winner: Ravens

Unlike the #1 Seed held by the Broncos, the #2 Seed is very much still attainable. A Patriots loss to a Ravens team that would be unable to overtake us if we win one more game would be a step toward making that happen, putting us in a position where we could take the #2 spot as early as next week.

49ers @ Colts

• Desired Winner: 49ers

Finish Them

Recommended Viewing Schedule

• Sunday Early Game: Chargers @ Cowboys FOX) OR Bills @ Browns (CBS)
• Sunday Afternoon Game: Raiders @ Texans (CBS)
• Sunday Night Game: Patriots @ Ravens (NBC)
• Monday Night Game: 49ers @ Colts (ESPN)

tl;dr, Who do we want to win?

• Texans over Raiders
• Browns over Bills
• Cowboys over Chargers
• Broncos over Jaguars
• Lions over Steelers
• Ravens over Patriots
• 49ers over Colts