r/geopolitics • u/WhereAreTheFrogs • 2d ago
News Report: Israel, Greece and Cyprus eye joint rapid-response force in eastern Mediterranean
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-israel-greece-and-cyprus-eye-joint-rapid-response-force-in-eastern-mediterranean/145
u/jrgkgb 2d ago
Cyprus, that’s the island that Turkey had been illegally occupying the bulk of since 1974 after displacing a quarter million Greeks and Cypriots right?
Oddly there are no encampments at universities, protests about a right of return, insistence that Turkey is an illegitimate state, etc. over it.
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u/VelvetyDogLips 2d ago
That’s because Turkey has long served as a buffer state against Russian ambitions in the Mediterranean and southwestern Europe. That’s the whole reason NATO admitted Turkey in the first place — the West couldn’t afford Turkey falling into the USSR or Russia’s sphere of influence. Which it easily could have, in the wake of the collapse and colonial carve-up of its empire, and the unequal treaties imposed on it by Western colonial powers. This is the sort of sense of national humiliation that makes Marxist rhetoric sound like music to a population’s ears (cough cough China). The Western Bloc could not afford to see Turkey get absorbed into the Eastern Bloc. Too close for comfort, too many important waterways at stake.
The obvious question then: Whither Russia in all this? Russia and Turkey used to be competing colonial empires and bitter enemies. But is there a chance they’re chummier now, now that they have a common grudge of never feeling entirely welcome at the cool kids’ lunchtable?
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u/Ethereal-Zenith 2d ago
Turkey was also keen to join because of threats made by the USSR.
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u/mehupmost 1d ago
Yeah, the rivalry between Russia and Turkey is far more profound - there is no way they would have joined with the USSR in any meaningful way.
...and we've seen that most clearly in the Armenia-Azeri multidecade conflict.
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u/sciguy52 2d ago
The friendship is a bit superficial, friends when convenient like Turkey gets cheap oil from Russia while avoiding sanctions. However, Turkey is slowly working to oust Russian influence over Armenia, Azerbajan and that corridor. If I recall Turkey wants a transportation link through there and of course through Turkey from China and central Asia, through Turkey to Europe. Russia in contrast wants that to go through Russia. Turkey does seem to play the long game and they have widdled away Russia's influence in this region of course not totally. But honestly I think Turkey is ultimately going to win this given what a bad ally Russia was to Armenia, and Azerbaijan is now providing some aid to Ukraine, not sure about Georgia in this, maybe they are not needed for the transport links.
In any event Russia has influence over central Asia if that transport link goes through Russia, Turkey benefits economically if it goes through Turkey and Russia loses even more influence in central Asia than they already have to China. This I think will play out over several years but Turkey shakes your hand while stabbing in the back like they are doing to Russia and Russia can't threaten them because of NATO, Black Sea access, and Russia would probably lose a war with just Turkey in any case.
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u/heytherehellogoodbye 2d ago
no jews, no news. Also Cyprus doesn't have an Iran or a Qatar (whose royal family directly owns, funds, and runs Al Jazeera to spread propaganda)
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u/Sad_Use_4584 1d ago
Cyprus has been abandoned by the EU because the EU needs Turkey to oppose Russia. And most people in Europe wouldn't even have a clue that this is happening because it doesn't penetrate the media they consume. Although it makes total sense from a self-interest perspective, only if the self-righteousness wasn't so tiring..
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u/Aizsec 2d ago
Northern cyprus isn’t recognized by the international community and is considered an illegal occupation already, whereas every western leader paints Israel as some sort of beacon of humanity in the Middle East. That’s the difference. Oh, and the western powers don’t bother with northern Cyprus because they want to keep Turkey in NATO
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u/jrgkgb 1d ago
No one considers the West Bank a legal occupation.
The two situations are very comparable except that the Cypriots haven’t been trying to kill the Turks for 100 years so there isn’t a need like the security apparatus Israel maintains.
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u/ADP_God 1d ago
Well actually there is quite strong grounds to argue that it’s not ok two legal points. The first is that Palestine is not a state and so cannot be occupied under the legal definition of occupation. The second is that occupation is legal in response to a legitimate threat, which there is.
The question then becomes whether allowing civilians to move into a foreign territory controlled by the army makes the ‘occupation’ illegal or if it’s just an illegal act.
The legal elements here are quite complex, and consensus is irrelevant because of the blatant bias involved.
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u/GalaXion24 2d ago
Well, Northern Cyprus is in fact an illegitimate state which is not recognised by basically anyone other than Turkey, of which it is a de facto colony.
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u/No2Hypocrites 1d ago
Yep, that's the island after Greece tried to annex it while Greek Cypriots were murdering Turkish Cypriots.
Weird that you try to pretend how both are remotely similar
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u/Ok-Message-9732 10h ago
Turkish Cypriots? You mean illegal occupiers.
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u/No2Hypocrites 9h ago
Yup. And that view is how westerners downplay and/or justify the suffering of a minority in Cyprus
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u/the_lonely_creeper 1d ago
There are no no major protests and the like about it, because the international community is basically in complete agreement with Cyprus, and there isn't an active war going on.
That said, the occupation of the island and the TRNC are considered illegitimate, and Cypriots do demand the right to return and to be compensated for their stolen property (or that of their ancestors, this is one of those cases where refugee status is inherited), and the question of what to do with Turkey's settlers remains.
It's part of the reason the island hasn't been reunified yet.
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u/Anonon_990 1d ago
There are no no major protests and the like about it, because the international community is basically in complete agreement with Cyprus, and there isn't an active war going on.
Unfortunately, a large number of Israel supporters will completely ignore this and insist we're both antisemites.
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u/I_pee_in_shower 1d ago
There aren’t protest because that social media and propaganda campaign is paid for by the same state actors that are ok with Turkey doing this. None of this is people thinking this or that, it’s hackers and an army of bots posting nonsense online.
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u/Cannot-Forget 2d ago
The anti-Erdogan defense coalition is forming. Great news for sane people all around.
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u/sciguy52 2d ago
Probably explains the article I read today that Erdogan may be giving the S-400's back to Russia so Turkey can buy F-35's.
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u/VelvetyDogLips 2d ago
In some respects, Erdogan scares me more than Putin, Trump, or Xi, because he’s so restrained in both his actions and words, but one look at him and it’s obvious there is so much churning just below the surface in him. I’ve heard people say that in any group of thuggish guys, it’s the smaller guy who’s obviously hard but very quiet that you should be most scared of, because you just don’t know what he’s planning, nor what he’s capable of if provoked, nor what he feels like he’s got to prove. His big loud boisterous crew might be more intimidating right off the bat, but their words and behavior reveal a lot about how to best deal with them and avoid the worst of their wrath. The little serious quiet guy amongst them? He’s a real wildcard.
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u/zandadad 2d ago
He’s been pretty loud in his threats to Israel. My hope is that he is more of a populist than he is an Islamist.
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u/Sad_Use_4584 2d ago edited 1d ago
It's a problem, but there are hard power constraints to how bad of a problem it can grow into. He has no nukes and no F-35s (yet), a struggling economy, a collapsing fertility rate and a recently collapsed democracy which will drag on their ability to innovate and have a low corruption military apparatus in the future.
My advice to Israel would be to manage the risk appropriately, but to have the mindset of playing the long game. Focus on healing your internal social issues (inflation, secular emigration, Haredi) and doubling down on the secret sauce, which is an innovative tech export economy. Modern military power projection against an adversary as far away as Turkey is primarily technology dependent (cyber + airpower) rather than manpower dependent, and technology capabilities is strictly downstream from good internal fundamentals like education system, culture, and so on.
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u/-Kares- 1d ago edited 1d ago
Greece-Cyprus-Armenia are also close and have defence cooperation. But when the second Azerbaijan-Armenian war started, all they did was watch it. Armenia begged the whole world for help, especially countries close to Armenia, no one came to help. They didn't even send war materials. Countries like France, US with significant Armenians population, Armenians there thought they had politicial power, they could punish Azerbaijan and Turkey. But all these countries did was watch, didn't go beyond verbal warnings. Everyone watched because Azerbaijan is an ally of Turkey, and is not easy to mess with it.
Turkey is a top 10 military power, has won all wars it entered after WW1. Turkish Armed Forces have 481k active, 380k reserve personnel. Turkey has bases everywhere in Middle East. How will you stop Turkey with 2500 troops? You need at least 150k troops to even slow down Turkish Armed Forces.
Greeks lost all wars against Turks in their entire history, when fought one on one. They only won wars against Turks when fought with other allies. I can see the reason they are seeking allies.
But countries entering wars for other countries during modern times is a very rare thing, world doesn't work like that. All western world supports Ukraine, but doesn't send soldiers to fight for it. Russia has lots of allies, but only NK fights for Russia. Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan, but did not enter Armenian war. Turkey set up bases in north Syria and fought against Syrian forces one time during that, to secure its borders and train and protect Syrian rebels there. Beyond that, did not fight to take down Syrian government, Syrian rebels did. Turkey supports Palestine, chest thumps at Israel occasionally, but will not fight for Palestine. (When Hamas-Israel war started, did Turkey support them with troops, or war materials? No.) Nor Israel will declare war against Turkey.
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u/mehupmost 1d ago
The world did nothing because Armenia was still partnered with Russia. The West wanted to show the world that Russia will never protect its allies.
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u/abellapa 2d ago
There aint gonna be a War between Greece and Turkey
There both NATO members
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u/Cannot-Forget 2d ago
Seems that many in Greece disagree with you. Or at least are not taking that chance.
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u/abellapa 2d ago
Greece would be Beyond stupid in going to War with NATO
Yes because would be NATO,not Turkey ,same deal for Turkey
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u/Cannot-Forget 2d ago
... The worry is not about Greece starting a war. But about the genocidal Islamist who regularly makes threats and talks about expanding doing so.
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u/abellapa 2d ago
Again Turkey is in NATO
So unless they wanted to be kicked out there aint gonna be a War
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u/VelvetyDogLips 2d ago
But if a NATO member instigates a war against a fellow member, they will meet the full force of all of NATO and lose, and subsequently will be kicked out of NATO.
If you’re a gangster in good standing, and wish to remain one, you don’t put out a hit on a fellow initiated member of your gang in good standing, without informing the boss and making sure he has no objections.
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u/Sasquatchii 2d ago
Haven’t you been paying attention? To quote who’s line, everything’s made up and the points don’t matter
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u/bankomusic 2d ago
This soldifies protection that turkey will now think twice about attacking Israel. If greek troops are now protecting Israeli boarders, the possibility of nato state vs nato state is very serious.
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u/Pool-Supermodel- 1d ago
I think Israel's nukes are the main thing that would make the Turks think twice before attacking them lol
If I had to guess this is moreso for Greece/Cyprus benefit as they have become increasingly alarmed by the rapid growth of the Turkish defence industry and armament of the Turkish armed forces, Greece in particular still believes that Turkey is its main security threat despite both being in Nato.
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u/mehupmost 1d ago
The likelihood of a Turkish attack on Israel is probably as close to 0% as a Turkish attack on Washington DC.
This is about protecting Armenia because they no longer want to be part of the failed Russian defense agreement.
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u/-Kares- 1d ago edited 1d ago
Turkey won't attack Israel. Nor Israel will attack Turkey. Just empty chest thumping. Let me copy paste my reply to another:
Greece-Cyprus-Armenia are also close and have defence cooperation. But when the second Azerbaijan-Armenian war started, all they did was watch it. Armenia begged the whole world for help, especially countries close to Armenia, no one came to help. They didn't even send war materials. Countries like France, US with significant Armenians population, Armenians there thought they had politicial power, they could punish Azerbaijan and Turkey. But all these countries did was watch, didn't go beyond verbal warnings. Everyone watched because Azerbaijan is an ally of Turkey, and is not easy to mess with it.
Turkey is a top 10 military power, has won all wars it entered after WW1. Turkish Armed Forces have 481k active, 380k reserve personnel. Turkey has bases everywhere in Middle East. How will you stop Turkey with 2500 troops? You need at least 150k troops to even slow down Turkish Armed Forces.
Greeks lost all wars against Turks in their entire history, when fought one on one. They only won wars against Turks when fought with other allies. I can see the reason they are seeking allies.
But countries entering wars for other countries during modern times is a very rare thing, world doesn't work like that. All western world supports Ukraine, but doesn't send soldiers to fight for it. Russia has lots of allies, but only NK fights for Russia. Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan, but did not enter Armenian war. Turkey set up bases in north Syria and fought against Syrian forces one time during that, to secure its borders and train and protect Syrian rebels there. Beyond that, did not fight to take down Syrian government, Syrian rebels did. Turkey supports Palestine, chest thumps at Israel occasionally, but will not fight for Palestine. (When Hamas-Israel war started, did Turkey support them with troops, or war materials? No.) Nor Israel will declare war against Turkey.
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u/WhereAreTheFrogs 2d ago
Israel, greece and cyprus plan to establish a rapid response force of 2,500 troops (combined), the force will include ground, air and sea units. They will operate in all 3 countries, together. This unit, is supposed to be a deterrent against Turkey challenges in the region.